Coronavirus Discussion

[rgand]

Yeah, but it's that bare foot at 3am that finds the errant Leggo.

 

[PhilHill]

We need a scientific study to determine which causes more pain, a Roman Caltrop or a common Lego brick.

 

[PhilHill]

Then again, when I was young kids still played with these;

Not even slippers were immune to these babies.
I think you can still buy them, although I would think that they would ban them as the no.1 cause of child abuse in the country.

 

[Cactus Jack]

Having started this thread, I can say that I've enjoyed the fluid nature of the conversation. Similar to the pandemic we started in one place, but have quickly, and in my opinion, appropriately allowed rational conversation & dialogue to hone in on the question behind the question. The Ted talk,  YouTube videos, the Spanish Flu article, both have been value adds to me and hopefully others.

Knowing what we now know the conversation around Warmoth my original question seems a bit tone deaf, and frankly insensitive. I posed the question before knowing national GDP is expected to drop double digits during Q2. All discretionary industries are shutting down, we are looking at a sudden and historic loss of wealth, without a doubt small privately held companies are going to feel the pain first and fast. How many folks, even in our hardcore niche of the guitar world, are prepared to purchase a Meadow Hawk or Red Shifter (Forget their names), when their own, parents, and grandparents retirement accounts evaporate?

Over 40 years Warmoth made it through the S&L crash, Iraq War, Dot Com bust, Enron, 9/11, subsequent wars, the Great Recession etc. Obviously they are a nimble company lead by creative driven folks. I hope they continue to evolve, innovate, and continue to play offense. The difference this time around, being a non-essential business, they might not be allowed to regardless of their own dreams and desires.

One day at a time. 

 

[PhilHill]

Having started this thread, I can say that I've enjoyed the fluid nature of the conversation. Similar to the pandemic we started in one place, but have quickly, and in my opinion, appropriately allowed rational conversation & dialogue to hit hone in on the question behind the question. The Ted talk,  YouTube videos, the Spanish Flu article, both have been value adds to me and hopefully others.

Knowing what we now know the conversation around Warmoth my original question seems a bit tone deaf, and frankly insensitive. I posed the question before knowing national GDP is expected to drop double digits during Q2. All discretionary industries are shutting down, we are looking at a sudden and historic loss of wealth, without a doubt small privately held companies are going to feel the pain first and fast. How many folks, even in our hardcore niche of the guitar world, are prepared to purchase a Meadow Hawk or Red Shifter (Forget their names), when their own, parents, and grandparents retirement accounts evaporate?

Over 40 years Warmoth made it through the S&L crash, Iraq War, Dot Com bust, Enron, 9/11, subsequent wars, the Great Recession etc. Obviously they are a nimble company lead by creative driven folks. I hope they continue to evolve, innovate, and continue to play offense. The difference this time around, being a non-essential business, they might not be allowed to regardless of their own dreams and desires.

One day at a time. 

I believe your OP did have value and is worth dicussing. It's just very hard to do so without stepping over the line on Forum rules, due to the nature of the causes and effects. But I am glad that you posted it.

 

[ByteFrenzy]

Well, its a tricky one if you're a government. Take the approach of the UK, and to a lesser degree, the Netherlands, and you will have a sharper peak in the number of cases, your health services will be swamped and a number of people will die. Take the other approach, like France and Belgium, and you will hopefully flatten the curve, keep the number of new cases limited, have less overload on emergency services and intensive care units, and less deaths. In both cases things only calm down once 60 or 70 percent of your population has encountered the virus, most with no or mild symptoms, many with more severe illness, and some passing away. Flattening the curve also means that it will take longer to reach that point where a sufficient number of people have developed immunity to see the number of new cases drop to zero. Your measures are stricter, start sooner, and last longer. That obviously has a major financial impact. And bottom line, whatever your approach, if a lot of people die, public opinion will say that you should have acted faster with more stringent measures. If very few people die, but a lot of businesses go belly up, they will say that your panicked reaction killed the economy. Do you lock down the Lego bricks or put on slippers if you wake at 3 a.m.?

 

[PhilHill]

And bottom line, whatever your approach, if a lot of people die, public opinion will say that you should have acted faster with more stringent measures. If very few people die, but a lot of businesses go belly up, they will say that your panicked reaction killed the economy. Do you lock down the Lego bricks or put on slippers if you wake at 3 a.m.?

The essential reason why a lot of folks who deal with the public become cynical, no matter how you handle things someone will curse your actions and name.
As for the last, best is a combination of self protection with the slippers and repeated lessons to the children on cleaning up after themselves. However that part varies widely with each child in it's effectiveness and required length of time to achieve.

 

[BigSteve22]

The essential reason why a lot of folks who deal with the public become cynical, no matter how you handle things someone will curse your actions and name.

Exactly, which is why many of us who worked as public sector professionals, are also considered insensitive. Those who have, for the most part, worked in the somewhat "sheltered" private sector, are used to people being polite and politically correct, while those who have worked in civil service, or other jobs in the public eye, are just so tired of the constant complaining, we tend not to give a rat's a$$, and get very annoyed when ill informed people run off at the mouth about subjects they really don't understand. You soon realize that no matter what you do, you can't please everyone, somebody's gonna have something stupid to say. So you just do the best job you can under the circumstances, with the resources that are available, and ignore those who complain, and  generally bring nothing constructive to the table.

As long as a public official has demonstrated that he/she is working in the best interest of the people he serves, I pretty good with it....

 

[Cactus Jack]

What a wonderful and calming speech from the Singapore PM. Thanks Hendrix, for prompting me to look beyond the US. Wonderful, rational, and clear communication that I hope more in the US have the opportunity to hear.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/KaoVg6ejgRQ[/youtube]

 

[BroccoliRob]

i've been working long hours since this stuff started gettin serious so my time at home has been all 'bout taht relaxation. but also you know you gotta clean extra hard these days so you don't get that 'Rona. i find loud music helps me relax while i clean. so much so that I stop cleaning, which is relaxing. and after that I'll eat. and after I eat a good, big meal I like to lie on the floor and feel like garbo (short for 'garbage') for a while.

since people are stuck at home, public transit has been pretty empty so i've been able to ut's (utilize) to save gas money (yes i know gas is cheap right now, but still not cheaper than a bus ride). it reminds me of when i was young ad my dad bought a new car he was overly protective of. he used to pick me up after ball practice (i played striker) but even though he had the plastic seat protectors he started just giving me bus money because of how sweaty i would get. i was eight and had never ridden public transit before. An old guy next to me my first time suggested I get off at his stop to see his Apple II computer so I couldve easily been taken advantage of.

I wasn't though, we just played Lode Runner and ate chips for a few hours. i actually went back several times before things got weird (he got different chips i didn't like, and after we beat lode runner he just wanted to watch tv with his grandmother and i had to walk home).

ah, simpler times

 

[stratamania]

Knowing what we now know the conversation around Warmoth my original question seems a bit tone deaf, and frankly insensitive. I posed the question before knowing national GDP is expected to drop double digits during Q2.

It is possible to change the title of the thread if you wanted...

 

[molul]

It's Day 10 since the quarantine started here in Spain. I'm grateful for working in a company that's ready for working remotely, and for having enough savings not to worry about paying bills, rent or food. Also, no relatives or friends have suffered the virus yet (crossing fingers).

But the situation is tough, and it will become much tougher this week (in Spain, I mean), when deaths are expected to reach its peak (and let's hope it does). Health care system is close to collapse, companies are going broke... Still, it's not The End Of The World, but this will have very bad consequences on many people's mental health. Not only for losing family or friends, but just because of having to stay at home for 4 weeks (and it will most likely be more; some are already saying July for the end of the quarantine). Fortunately, I'm very used at staying at home for a long time, but many other people aren't.

What really bugs me is seeing this chaos, and yet many people (I don't mean people in these forums, but people from my neighborhood and the whole country) still don't understand the simple concept of "Stay at home, either for not getting the virus or for not spreading it, as you or other people might DIE" >_<

We're still really far from seeing how, but this will change the world as we know it. I'm hoping the most important thing is that we humans are all the same. I always thought that only an alien invasion would cause this, but this virus might be the trigger for that.

Take care you all. And if needed in your country, stay at home as much as you can.

 

[Hendrix]

What a wonderful and calming speech from the Singapore PM. Thanks Hendrix, for prompting me to look beyond the US. Wonderful, rational, and clear communication that I hope more in the US have the opportunity to hear.

Thanks
My daytime job is building robotics, so I watch a lot AI stuff, the best guy is Lex Fridman , as he got most in deep conversations with a lot most intelligent scholars/ CEO etc around world. Highly recommended his new video in deep conversations on COVID-19 ,

7 Levels of Coronavirus Impact

1.Biological & Medical (Life & Death)
2.Psychological (Emotion –Fear & Love)
3.Economic (Employment, Productivity & Financial Burden)
4.Political (Partisanship & Policy)
5.Social (Collective Cognition, Panic & Conspiracy)
6.Existential (Civilization-Level Extinction)
7.Philosophical (Meaning of Life)

what ever you point of view, I sure you got something take away form his conversations .

[youtube]jAYTogd38m4[/youtube]

 

[BroccoliRob]

Just cuz a dude from MIT is wearing a suit + tie doesnt mean im gonna take a bite outta some youtube view-bait.

 

[mayfly]

Hey!  Aren't YOU wearing a suit and tie Mr. Bait?  :headbang:

 

[Cactus Jack]

Washington just went on full lock down. I assume this means Warmoth production has halted as they're a non-essential business. I hope the Warmoth family is well, and know your larger family is thinking of you all.

Apparently, businesses have 48 hours to close. I'd recommend that folks on this forum with open orders DO NOT call Warmoth. Let's give them an opportunity to focus on their staff and million other customers who are most likely flooding their phone lines. 

https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-stay-home-stay-healthy-order-4891a7511f5e

 

[aarontunes]

Yes, W will be closing for a couple weeks. We plan to post an update to our Covid-19 page on Wednesday, the first day we will be closed. I'll post it here a couple days early, so you guys can know what to expect.

The main take-aways are 1) Despite the shutdown our website will still be open and taking orders, 2) There will be a delay in production, but the day we are able to we will be back at it, 3) Warmoth has the raw materials and supplies on hand to fill all orders past, present, and moving forward, and 4) Warmoth has it's financial house in order, and barring a much bigger catastrophy we won't be going anywhere.

To wit:

Covid-19 Announcement
As of Wednesday March 25th the Governor of Washington has announced a state-wide closure of all non-essential businesses in a united effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. To comply with this order Warmoth has temporarily closed its facility.

During this time our website will be open and taking orders. We will also continue to work remotely to reply as quickly as possible to your needs and questions via email.

While this closure does mean a delay in delivery times, be assured that all orders, past and present, will be filled. Warmoth is in strong financial shape and we have plenty of raw materials and supplies on hand to complete all current orders and continue production going forward. We remain as dedicated to our customers as ever and we look forward to emerging from this challenge to continue serving your guitar parts needs.

This shutdown is a temporary measure to comply with local laws in our state. As soon as we are allowed to do so we will resume full production and all orders will be completed and shipped as quickly as possible. At this time the mandatory closure is scheduled to end on Wednesday, April 8. We will continue to post updates as they become available.

We appreciate your patience and confidence as we await the notice that we can return to work.

 

[molul]

Stay safe, Aaron. Let's hope this pass as quickly as possible.

 

[aarontunes]

Stay safe, Aaron. Let's hope this pass as quickly as possible.

What this means for me is that I get to stay at home and make even more videos of me playing an even wider variety of styles on a even huger range of Warmoth guitars.


I'm going to be OK.  :icon_thumright:

 

[rgand]

Thanks, Aaron. Nice to know things will be back to normal as soon as possible.

As to those videos, looking forward to what you come up with. I take it you'll be on the forum as usual.

Stay safe and healthy.