Coronavirus Discussion

[PhilHill]

Sounds cold-hearted, but...

It’s just the way existence works. The natural world cares nothing for anybodies feelings, and trying to pretend otherwise just inhibits our ability to have honest discussion about it. Doesn’t mean you have to like it, but if you can accept the reality you can respond to it much more effectively.

Quite true. Problem is, we have a lot of folks nowadays who can't accept any reality except the one they manufacture themselves.  :dontknow:

 

[bagman67]

I would urge folks who are thinking this is just a flu to watch this video from a British intensive care specialist.


https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1241803403619172359



The key takeaways:

1.  The transmissibility of COVID19 is much greater  than for ordinary flu.


2.  If COVID19 is allowed to run its natural course, one then must conclude, it will consume all available intensive care resources and leave many without care.


If I am infected with ordinary flu, I will likely infect 1.3-1.4 people.  Through ten cycles of transmission, that results in ~14 cases originating from my own infection.


1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 * 1.3 = ~13.8


If I am infected with COVID-19, I will likely infect 3 other people.  Through ten cycles, that results in ~59000 cases.


3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 = 59049


Blah blah blah this assumes each carrier encounters uninfected people, everyone gets the same outcomes, etc.


But leaving aside disclaimers, it's clear the proportion of the population likely to be infected several orders of magnitude greater than that for ordinary flu.


So letting the virus run its course is guaranteed to swamp available resources for some time to come, and many who could have been treated if resources were available will die instead.

 

[Hendrix]

Hendrix,

Reports are coming out in the U.S. that Hong Kong is being hit hard. After doing an excellent job of stopping the virus the story is Hong Kong "let it's guard down," and is now getting hit hard. Folks say the cause is travel has opened up and folks are bringing the virus back in.

Is that accurate, or media spin?

It some how true but complicated, we got only around 2 ~ 3 new case/date weeks ago , so some people do "let it's guard down," and some place full of people again . The main problem is as the world is lockdown this week, a lot of people rushed back to Honkong , bringing the virus back in around 20~30 new case/date . That not most danger part , as those people’s back to HK from around the world been isolating under law and put on tracking device. And near all air travel been stop now , so much less people can be come back now .

The most danger part is we have a local government kiss ass to China , land travel between China always got some part open , most absurd part all other place come to Hongkong need to isolating by law for 14 days . But people back from Wuhang and Hubei ( where all this started ) only need to be “ voluntarily isolating “ and no test check . As China covering up and decided no new case in Wuhang and Hubei this week , if HK test check people back from those 2 places, will show China lie .

China plan to open up theme park and theatre etc end of this month, showing up back to normal when other countries chaos, that what doctors warn 2nd wave may coming.

[youtube]YH1dDBKbKUg[/youtube]

 

[PhilHill]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/24/821178945/workers-in-7-amazon-warehouses-test-positive-for-coronavirus

Significance unknown, be careful of packages it can live on them for a certain amount of time.

 

[stratamania]

This is a site I found out about this morning.

It has a map of the US where you can see the types of actions different states are taking and modelling showing the outcomes depending on what actions are taken.

https://covidactnow.org/

 

[PhilHill]

In addition to the spread of the virus, we'll very soon have a host of other things to deal with. Depending on who you listen to, between 50 to 78 percent of folks in this country live paycheck to paycheck. Which also means they have no emergency savings to fall back on. Regardless of how they got that way, how long can they go before starvation looms large? As money gets tighter and tighter they will begin to look for other ways to survive, some legal, some not so legal. It may get to where they consider the chance of catching or spreading the virus to be a secondary consideration. Hunger makes people do things they would not ordinarily do. Believe me, I know from experience how it can change your viewpoint on things. I'm not trying to paint an apocalyptic picture here, but reality has a habit of forcing itself on our attention. Except perhaps, for certain folks in the District of Columbia... :icon_scratch:

 

[Cactus Jack]

Dumb question of the day. Why the heck are folks going to the hospital?

For 95% of all folks infected why not just stay at home and deal with feeling crappy for a few days/weeks? If you're pregnant, have significant pre-existing conditions, or advanced age, sure, if needed get to a hospital asap. If you're running a high-grade fever for multiple days, yes, go to a hospital. However, hearing hospitals are being overrun, given the statistics we know, makes me think the vast majority of folks are selfish and stealing valuable resources from those in real need. There is no treatment, and unless you're to the point where you need a ventilator, what do you reasonably expect a hospital to do for you? Stay home and take care of yourself. This isn't like a heart attack where folks drop dead the moment they're infected.

I sure hope in moments like these medical professionals are empowered to turn away frivolous requests so they can spend their time healing folks that need healing. I apologize for my crass tone, but the more I read, the more pissed I get that folks are panic buying, shutting down hospitals, acting selfishly, and now everyone from the barista to Boeing has their handout hoping the government takes care of them. So much of our collective behavior is a slap in the face to folks like my grandparents who lived through world wars and depression.

I'm so conflicted right now but do appreciate you guys keeping the conversation going, and providing a safe place for our community to process everything that's happening. I appreciate you guys, and hope everyone stays healthy.

 

[Cagey]

I don't know. When I was a kid, we didn't go to the doctor unless we were in real fear for our lives. But, back then, insurance wasn't as prevalent as it is now, and I think the laws were different as well. As a result, you did a lot of your own triage and knew how to do at least some rudimentary first aid and self-help. Now, hospitals have become something of "the tragedy of the commons", with all the abuse that entails.

 

[PhilHill]

Dumb question of the day. Why the heck are folks going to the hospital?

For 95% of all folks infected why not just stay at home and deal with feeling crappy for a few days/weeks? If you're pregnant, have significant pre-existing conditions, or advanced age, sure, if needed get to a hospital asap. If you're running a high-grade fever for multiple days, yes, go to a hospital. However, hearing hospitals are being overrun, given the statistics we know, makes me think the vast majority of folks are selfish and stealing valuable resources from those in real need. There is no treatment, and unless you're to the point where you need a ventilator, what do you reasonably expect a hospital to do for you? Stay home and take care of yourself. This isn't like a heart attack where folks drop dead the moment they're infected.

I sure hope in moments like these medical professionals are empowered to turn away frivolous requests so they can spend their time healing folks that need healing. I apologize for my crass tone, but the more I read, the more pissed I get that folks are panic buying, shutting down hospitals, acting selfishly, and now everyone from the barista to Boeing has their handout hoping the government takes care of them. So much of our collective behavior is a slap in the face to folks like my grandparents who lived through world wars and depression.

I'm so conflicted right now but do appreciate you guys keeping the conversation going, and providing a safe place for our community to process everything that's happening. I appreciate you guys, and hope everyone stays healthy.

I can understand your frustration. Not to be facetious, more to try to lighten the mood. I believe Mark Twain gave a couple of observations that fit the situation. One is "If you take up a starving dog and give it food and water, it will not bite you. This is the primary difference between a man and a dog." The other being " I believe our Heavenly Father created Man, as he was dissatisfied with the monkey."

 

[arealken]

I am distressed because it restricts/ prohibits my ability to interact socially  with some of the people who are most important in my life, and that's a kind of hell. Its finally here now in the area though not actually in my county ...yet.

 

[I AM a robot]

Dumb question of the day. Why the heck are folks going to the hospital?

For 95% of all folks infected why not just stay at home and deal with feeling crappy for a few days/weeks?

The lesson from Italy is that some significant fraction of infected (perhaps 10%) will have severe symptoms requiring hospitalization and a respirator. If these people get care, most live, and the overall death rate is around 1%

If so many people need care, the hospitals cannot give it. Then the death rate climbs, perhaps as bad as 4%.

This is why the medical professionals fear a rampant infection. It isn't just that the infected rate climbs, but also that once you exceed the hospital capacity, then the death rate also climbs. In essence, every severe case becomes a death because there are not enough respirators to keep them all alive.

 

[T89Rex]

The other issue is increased deaths from unrelated illness. If you have a car crash or a heart attack and the ICU can't accommodate you because it's full of coronavirus patients, what are you going to do?

 

[Verne Bunsen]

I also think a lot of people are going to the ER for things they normally wouldn't because they are afraid. Not every runny nose is Corona Virus.

 

[arealken]

I also think a lot of people are going to the ER for things they normally wouldn't because they are afraid. Not every runny nose is Corona Virus.

thats probably true, but i doubt ER would admit you now with just a runny nose.

 

[Cagey]

They may not admit you, but you still consume resources in the process. Nurses, doctors, support personnel all have to spend some amount of time making sure you don't need admittance/treatment/etc., which also consumes other resources such as gloves/masks/tests/equipment/space/etc.

 

[I AM a robot]

I know two nurses here in the Detroit area. One is an ER nurse and  said they did 25 intubations last week, while they normally do less than one a month.

The other is not in the ER but said that they are were being issued one set of PPE for a shift. Now they are putting the N95 masks in a bag to use again the next shift. There are general shortages in PPE already here.

I can't wait for my Warmoth shipment next week so I can focus on that.

 

[Hendrix]

Btw , thanks for Warmoth hard working in this period, my 40th Anniversary Dyes order delivered, but I need to wait for the re-shipping company send to me , last month I order some tuners wait 6 weeks to send to me , as people mail order face mask in panic mode , all delivered company run like hell .

As face mask becomes real global shortage now , no where can mail order face mask anymore, hope the re-shipping time shorter . 

Hone kong businesses man build more than 10 new face mask production line a month ago , some of them said certification for world standard has been approved now, can put out to market in 1 or 2 weeks, hope next month shortage of face mask should be easy down .

I read news reports USA talk about that they also learn need to move the production line back to USA.

https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-is-making-face-shields-for-healthcare-workers-during-coronavirus-2020-3

 

[PhilHill]

I live about an hour northwest of Chicago, not really my choice but necessitated by family needs. Chicago has issued a shelter in place stay at home directive. Yesterday the weather was nice, so what were people doing? What else but ignoring the directive and gathering at parks and beaches , playing basketball and soccer and having parties. So this morning the Mayor and Police Superintendent had a press conference and announced they tried to be nice, but since folks refuse to follow guidelines all Parks, Beaches, and other public recreation areas are closed. Anybody caught congregating in groups would be issued citations with repeat offenders getting fines of up to $500.
Humans can be amazingly intelligent, kind, generous, and brave. However, they often remind me of a bunch of Middle School delinquents.

 

[Verne Bunsen]

I find it fascinating and a little bit unnerving to witness just how quickly we throw individual liberty in the burn barrel and start condemning our neighbors for failing to enthusiastically abide by orders to not leave your house or gather in groups when our safety is in question. Will we be calling the authorities to report unauthorized socializing soon?

Anybody caught congregating in groups would be issued citations with repeat offenders getting fines of up to $500.

Am I the only one who finds this statement a little horrifying? Bad, bad precedents are being established here.

 

[PhilHill]

I find it fascinating and a little bit unnerving to witness just how quickly we throw individual liberty in the burn barrel and start condemning our neighbors for failing to enthusiastically abide by orders to not leave your house or gather in groups when our safety is in question. Will we be calling the authorities to report unauthorized socializing soon?

Anybody caught congregating in groups would be issued citations with repeat offenders getting fines of up to $500.

Am I the only one who finds this statement a little horrifying? Bad, bad precedents are being established here.

I understand and somewhat agree with that. As Franklin said," Beware of He that would protect your liberty, for He means to take it." At the same time though, if you are infected with a virus such as this, which is more important your personal freedom or the health of those around you? It brings into question the matter of what we agree to when we form a society, if we want the benefits of said society, what are our responsibilities to that society? Do our personal wants and needs outweigh the wants and needs of the rest of that society? Do the needs of the one outweigh the needs of the many? (Couldn't resist that.)
And no, we're not all infected with the virus. Whether it's as dangerous as they make it out to be I don't know. However, one does have to look at what is happening in many other areas of the World.