Coronavirus Discussion

[Cagey]

Heading down the hall back to the room at the hotel after a night in the bar, we'd swear we'd climb that narrow wall if it took us all night.

 

[Hendrix]

About bailout , I think most people haven’t watched last video I posted, it actually coved a lot of topics, too complicated topics too many questions, and that guy made a new video to covering more on bailout , so I think it worth to share more, if you interested in economic, recommendations watch with this one :
[youtube]N8HOWh8HPTo[/youtube]


People in different countries feel different on inflation , oil price play a big part in USA , it not a normal thing that oil price keep dropping last 10 years , it a oil war that keep US people happy and Russia lower on incomes(keep Russia less influence to world) , but that cannot run like this forever.
[youtube]idhj-bOFy5Q[/youtube]

Where we are more like NY and San Francisco , Home Price Soars made rent boom and everything else go up . So we are more like people in NY , a lot don’t drive car and really feel the inflation .
Hot and cheaper money vs huge rise in property prices
[youtube]5BmvDyHb3K8[/youtube]

Fed is a rabbit hole too deep to dig , if you interested in economic can watch:
[youtube]mQUhJTxK5mA[/youtube]

 

[Rick]

Yeah, we are in the rabbit hole.

 

[BroccoliRob]

Update: in my state the governer is now recommending people wear something to cover their nose and mouth  if they don't have masks, like a scarf if they are going to be out in public near people, and also reminding everyone to avoid watching The Mask, but that advisory has been out for years now.

 

[Michaelga]

Update: in my state the governer is now recommending people wear something to cover their nose and mouth  if they don't have masks, like a scarf if they are going to be out in public near people, and also reminding everyone to avoid watching The Mask, but that advisory has been out for years now.

Is that "The Mask" with Jim Carrey or the one with Cher?

Michael

 

[mayfly]

Update: in my state the governer is now recommending people wear something to cover their nose and mouth  if they don't have masks, like a scarf if they are going to be out in public near people, and also reminding everyone to avoid watching The Mask, but that advisory has been out for years now.

Is that "The Mask" with Jim Carrey or the one with Cher?

Michael

Either one, man.  Either one.

 

[Rick]

Or son of the mask

 

[Cactus Jack]

I had the displeasure of navigating the Payroll Protection Program last week. There is over $1T of demand vs $350B in supply. Community banks nation wide failed to create manageable queue systems, let alone process applications. The government and SBA failed even harder.

Here’s an interesting last minute provision. Hedge funds, PE firms, VC firms, and law firms now qualify. Who do you think will get relief first, a firm with millions in credit, or the local bakery? One look at BOA and it’s evident many small struggling companies are going to be left behind.

Most folks don’t work in my space, but this is a complete and total embarrassment for our nation. The dam is about to burst.

 

[Cactus Jack]

I just read WA has extended their Shelter In Place order until May. How are things going up there? Are the number of cases stabilizing or decreasing yet?

 

[Rick]

It’s like we’re in a car with no brakes barreling down a hill.  To the left, covid 19, to the right economic disaster, at the bottom a mix of both.  And we have figure out how to crash the car with the least amount of damage  and killing as few passengers as possible. Hong Kong and Taiwan went thru this with sars, now it’s our turn to figure it out.

 

[stratamania]

It’s like we’re in a car with no brakes barreling down a hill.  To the left, covid 19, to the right economic disaster, at the bottom a mix of both.  And we have figure out how to crash the car with the least amount of damage  and killing as few passengers as possible. Hong Kong and Taiwan went thru this with sars, now it’s our turn to figure it out.

An economy can recover over time. The dead passengers can not recover or assist the recovery of the first.

The economy versus deaths is a false dichotomy.

 

[JohnnyHardtail]

Economic hardship can also have poor outcomes as well, but I wouldn't compare it to having severe Pneumonia.

The Pandemic is very unfair on people who work in Hospitals and those needing medical treatment.

 

[jay4321]

There’s some small overlap of trade-off, and at some point later that slice will require careful thought and difficult decisions. But there’s no getting around the bulk of the economic damage with even the most irresponsible and aggressive strategies. Some businesses and many jobs won’t recover as is, and obviously people won’t just start filling restaurants and movie theaters simply because their doors reopen no matter how badly their owners and employee wish them too.

But right now we’re at what’s believed to be the most important inflection point here in the US timeline, and we need to be all-in on that. Several epidemic models for show two outcome trajectories, with overall infection rates in single digit % of the population for one, and the other that points to 30%+ infected. Basically an inverted bell curve where results in between those extremes are somewhat less likely. If that timing and those binary path models both hold there’s almost no shutdown measure too extreme over the next week or two, we simply need to fall on the lighter end. The math at the other extreme is unthinkable, both in casualties and in terms of the economy.

If we can get this part right then hopefully we can get things stable enough to start thinking about the next step and how to start recovery. I don’t know what to expect though, I see a lot of folks getting it and others who clearly don’t. Neighbors had a BBQ with 8 cars in front of the house.

 

[Hendrix]

Hong Kong people’s can be seen over reacting in eye of other country, and we “over done “ a lot more than government “ask for “ .

That purely benefit-driven economic animal . 2003 SARS era is deepest wound in Hong Kong people’s heart , not only because it takes few hundred lives directly , most profound lesson is it cost Home price drop 70% from pecks in 1997 , then go up around 600% up to now .
A lot more people dead not by  SARS Coronavirus in 2003 , but suicide for negative equity on home mortgage , that what can happened to economic if government not deal with it right.

So when would this be end ? From Hongkong SARS timeline experience , it takes about half years, peaks case around 2 months, that is a city more densely than NY , so lest dense population city may lasting shorter if social distancing being enforce.

Dead rates in SARS is over 17% , although “only” few hundred dead , but sadly more people suicide in April and May as can’t see hope when lost jobs and home . Curve began to fattening in May , That is the economic down fall kill more people, so it not easy balance for close biz to save more people or back to normal earlier to save economic .

Also as people in HK learn the lesson hard way in 2003 , Now people consciously keeping safely habit like wear mask and washed hand etc, basically most company in HK still running now (unless there is no client) , only public entertainment and closed contact service biz are order to closed .

Restaurant in HK still open in some grimace way

BTW , if you have spare money, looking back in HK history, that no better time for investment than now .

 

[Hendrix]

here is a good detail documentary on SARS 2003 , can find out more .

[youtube]C-wf_cC0Kek[/youtube]

 

[Verne Bunsen]

Checking in on day 7 of my 14 day locked-in-a-hotel-room-in-Alaska quarantine. Sanity level: fair to midlin’. The requirements are more restrictive than we were initially led to believe, with no access to any public place, including grocery stores. I’d have planned differently had I know that, but the Fred Meyer grocery delivery service has been a life saver. I brought a travel guitar, so it has been nice to spend time practicing. I normally can’t get away with practicing the same four measures of a song for 2 hours, haha! In addition to that, I’m reading the Wheel Of Time series, re-playing Final Fantasy VII on Switch, and I just finished watching The Witcher on Netflix. It was way good... A guy in a Hazmat suit and full-face respirator comes once daily to read my temperature. A couple of guys I work with are also here, so we go walking every day (maintaining 6-feet of separation at all times and avoiding contact with the local hu-mahns, of course). Surprisingly I am not clawing at the walls as badly as I thought I would be. Instead it has been the thought that “this is how I am spending 2 weeks out of how ever many weeks I get” that has been bothering me. Sitting here, alone in a room, away from my family, away from my work, away from my hobbies, it feels like an almost sinful waste of time. But, what is a guy to do.... At least I’m half way there!

 

[rgand]

It sounds like you're holding your own, VB. Think how nice it will be when you can finally get to work. And how much nicer when you can get home again.

 

[Cagey]

Good to hear you're doing ok. I know what it's like to travel and live in hotel rooms - it can be a lot more tiring than working, and I never had to deal with quarantines.

 

[Verne Bunsen]

Thanks fellas. Indeed, I never looked so forward to getting to work, haha!

 

[mayfly]

A while ago I ordered a pile of electronic parts.  Got an idea for an electronic gizmo don't-cha-know.
The box has been in quarantine for about a week  :-\

I also just received a pair of Mayfly loudspeakers back from a reviewer.  They are also in quarantine. 

But hopefully a good review will result!   Then I just need to convince the next reviewer to have a go at them...  :laughing7: