Jumble Jumble
Hero Member
- Messages
- 1,932
Looking at the past 6 months of polls, any particular vote is about 27% likely to be a vote for the eventual winner. So over time, all else being equal, you would expect about 1 in 4 of your voted-for instruments to win. Of course, a few years of this wouldn't be enough to see this trend emerging very strongly. And also, maybe you just love gold hardware, and everyone else hates it, which would mean that your votes for those would hardly ever be for an eventual winner.