I'd bet it's just the neck, and I wouldn't replace it just yet. Depending on what it did, distortions can sometimes be baked out. If it's twisted, you may as well give it to the dog for a chew toy, unless you have some deep, meaningful emotional attachment to it that would allow you to spend a lotta money on repair. If it's just warped so that it has more back bow or relief than the truss rod will adjust out, then you may be in luck.
You just need a few things.
- A bent up neck (tuners removed)
- a couple/few clamps (I use 3" 'C' clamps)
- a strong and reliably straight piece of steel about 18" long or so (a
levelling beam works great)
- something to use as a shim(s) (I use neck plates, but whatever you use just needs to be able to take some heat)
- something to use as a pillow for the clamp faces (cardboard is fine)
and an oven large enough to hold a guitar neck. I use the Binford 6000 NeckBaker™ Deluxe, in stainless steel, but most household ovens will do...
In this case, I was trying to take out some excessive back bow. So, I loosened the truss rod until there was no pull on the neck, then shimmed it in the center using some neck plates, clamping it at the ends to force a forward bend to it. If you were trying to get rid of too much forward bow (relief), then you'd shim it at either end and clamp it in the middle.
Place it in a pre-heated 175°F oven for 1 hour, or until a toothpick inserted in a tuning peg hole tells you nothing.
Remove it from the oven (don't forget to use an oven mitt or something - it's gonna be hot) and let it air cool for a few hours. Once it's cool, you undo the clamps and the neck will have taken on the bend you've baked into it.
Some things to note. If you look at the picture above of the neck clamped up, you can see I bent it pretty aggressively.
Don't do that! It's completely unnecessary. I expected the thing to spring back a bit once the clamps were released, but it did not. The bend you see was the bend I got, which is clearly excessive. When you shim the thing before baking to get your desired bend, you'll want to go just very slightly past where you want to be so there's room for the truss rod to work, but no farther.
Be careful where you put the shims - you can put a ski slope on the thing that won't adjust out, and will require re-bending to eliminate.
If you do over-bend it, you can do it all over again. That one took 3 tries before I was through with it.