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Things look grim for the Big G.

bagman67

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Gibson, surprisingly (not), are expected to have trouble servicing debt that comes due soon, what with with being overleveraged and having issues with product line contraction and executive turnover.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14280618/1/gibson-guitar-may-default-if-company-can-t-refinance-its-debt.html

Realistically, they'll probably either spin off some brands, or someone new will come in and buy out current ownership.  Edit:  Or some combination of the two (most likely in my view).
 
Henry has been so wrong headed the last 10 years. First - the electronic tuner thing.... I mean, WTH? No one wanted that crap. His buying spree is weird, too - even buying non-instrument companies like Onkyo. Henry has turned Gibson into Norlin - a bloated corporation with no definable purpose or direction. Let's hope bankruptcy is not in the cards. If so, I hope the new direction would herald a return to Gibson's core industry of high end guitars, selling off all the rest. Focus - not conglomeration - is the answer for Gibson.
 
Henry J has made some pretty big misjudgments about his core customers for the last many years, for sure. He's also made some very weird purchases.


The real problem, though, is the tireless, crushing, merciless debt.
 
There's been some real game-playing going on between the government and the Federal Reserve for roughly the last decade. With the kind of numbers that have been shuffling around, there's been a number of things that should have happened but didn't and didn't happen but should've that nobody's talking about.

A few notable oddities are things like inexpensive money but a lack of availability. What's up with that? Another would be an unimaginable increase in the national debt, but nothing tangible to show for it. Then, there's the massive jump in the monetary supply with no corresponding increase in inflation. How can that happen? Somebody's been cooking the books, big time.

The biggest surprise is nobody's talking about it, although that's probably understandable when people think guys like Paul Krugman know what they're talking about. As a Nobel prize-winning economist and university professor, I'm pretty sure he spends his days in competition with the pigeons and ground squirrels trying to understand how things like supply and demand work, all the while making proclamations and recommendations in the fog of his ignorance. He spends more time saying obviously stupid things right out loud in the NYT than Obama spent golfing, and people who should know better just lap it up like cream. It's mind boggling. I suspect the only reason he's not a politician is there are far too many skeletons in his closet for him to get elected. It certainly can't be because he's not stupid enough.

But, I digress.

In the meantime, cheap money lets guys like Mr. Juszkiewicz (who probably isn't as dumb as he looks, more likely he's just too egotistical and narcissistic of a sociopath to know when he's out of his depth) to make moves that otherwise wouldn't be available to him. All businesses follow certain general rules, but each has subspecialties that make or break them. He's been cranking the portfolio using OPM and waiting on the percentages, which usually works. But, he's applying general rules in a specialty field, so in the case of Gibson he's failing. Put him in charge of a retail commodities company like Proctor & Gamble, Agra or International Paper, and he'd probably kick ass. But a musical instruments company? No. Not gonna work. You see the same thing happening on the distribution end with Bain Capital and Guitar Center. BC made all the standard moves they learned at Harvard, the company bloomed like a rose planted in pure radioactive fertilizer, and now what? GC's the biggest musical instrument distributor on the planet and they're going bankrupt. WTF?

Gibson might bounce back if they're cut loose, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Times have changed and a lotta irreversible damage has been done, not just to their brand but to their market.
 
Don't encourage me, I've got blood pressure issues and I'm fixin' to let loose on the medical field  :laughing7:
 
Cagey said:
Don't encourage me, I've got blood pressure issues and I'm fixin' to let loose on the medical field  :laughing7:
:doh:, that's my dads favorite scratchin' post....
 
This one minute video from the NAMM show might explain why Gibson is circling the toilet bowl...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtUJ2pVORi0
 
Incredible. Yeah, you may have nailed it. But, if they really want to go out of business that badly, why not just reduce the sell prices of their goods and services to below cost for as long as it took? Seems like it would be a helluva lot easier and a lot less embarrassing.
 
They just added a dealer in Los Gatos, one of the ritzier suburbs of San Jose.  Keith Holland Guitars. As it happens, Keith builds a line of partscasters branded with his own name and uses Warmoth parts for some of 'em.  He ain't hurtin' too bad, by the look of things.  Heritage also recently picked up a dealers in Santa Cruz, at Sylvan Music.  The long-time holder of the Martin and Fender and PRS franchises in Santa Cruz, an operation named Union Grove Music, just closed when the owner retired,  so Sylvan got the franchises. 


I hope Heritage are doing well and not just flooring guitars and praying for rain.
 
I'm pretty sure they're still in business, but I doubt they're gaining much, if anything, from Gibson's meltdown. I suspect the place is basically in the end stages of the "work 'til you die" retirement plan they made for themselves when Gibson left, and at some point they're gonna have to shut down due to lack of... everything. One day a critical employee will finally not be able to make it in anymore and become the straw that broke the camel's back, and the stragglers will be reduced to eating catfood on whatever pittance social security pays. Gibson (or somebody) will buy the name for a song and pretend to make high-end guitars, but it won't last against the juggernaut that PRS and South Korea have become in that space.
 
Gibby is all kinds of screwed up and they certainly lost their way on the consumer end. My brother was a Gibson man back in the day but when I saw what they were churning out and how much they wanted for it when I resumed playing in 2010 my reaction was not anything that can ever be printed. I can't help but think Gibson will be bought by someone from overseas and who knows what will follow that. Probably LPs, SGs, and 335's will continue but hopefully the era of the rabid attack lawyers of Gibson regarding parts guitar options will go away.
 
AirCap said:
This one minute video from the NAMM show might explain why Gibson is circling the toilet bowl...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtUJ2pVORi0

What are they thinking?

 
As a (sort of) side note:

On the Freak Guitar Camp we had a guest speaker who's an up-and-coming guitar builder.
He wasn't a big fan of the big G and as an anecdote he shared with us the time he was charged with the restoration of a Flying V with a broken neck (somebody sat on the guitar that was lying on a couch with the neck resting on the armrest). When he removed the broken neck he found inside the neckpocket a screw and a broken drill bit! :o
How's that for quality work? How's it even possible? ???
 
It looks to me like they are trying to market their brand in the hopes that revenue will offset the losses from manufacturing.  Harley Davidson is a good example, I don't have specific numbers but I'm guessing they make helluva lot more off t-shirts than they do motorcycles.  But, they need the motorcycle out there to sell t-shirts.  Get it?  Slash being recently named Gibson's first "brand ambassador" and that god-awful fashion show previously linked may point to that direction.  Not saying that strategy will work, but if Gibson cut their losses and moved their manufacturing to Mexico, you guys would be giving them cr@p for that too even if it knocked $1000 off the MSRP.  And, honestly, if a new Les Paul went from $4000 to $3000, would that change your mind into buying one?  Not me and I love Les Pauls
 
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